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National year-end price forecast downgraded modestly following sluggish third quarter: Royal LePage

Expect stable home prices through remainder of 2023 despite lower sales volumes

Third quarter highlights:

- Aggregate price of a home in Canada expected to increase 7.0% in Q4 2023 compared to same period last year, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 8.5%

- National aggregate home price increased 3.6% year over year in Q3 2023, decreased 0.8% on a quarter-over-quarter basis

- Aggregate home prices in greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver posted modest quarterly declines in Q3 of 2.8% and 1.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, Greater Montreal Area posted 0.6% aggregate price increase quarter over quarter

More than half (57%) of regional markets in the report posted a quarter-over-quarter decline in Q3 as activity softened

- Royal LePage applauds federal government’s GST rebate policy aimed at incentivizing new construction of purpose-built rental housing



The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton decreased 2.8 per cent year over year to $433,100 in the third quarter of 2023. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased modestly by 0.3 per cent.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 2.3 per cent year over year to $471,900 in the third quarter of 2023, while the median price of a condominium decreased 5.5 per cent to $194,900 during the same period.

“Edmonton’s real estate market is building momentum at a time when many other markets across the country are losing some steam. We are seeing pressure build as the city becomes an increasingly attractive option for out-of-province and out-of-country buyers, some of whom have been priced out of the now less affordable Calgary market,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “Our inventory has shrunk to levels not seen in a long time, and I expect supply will continue to be outsripped by growing demand well into next year.”

Shearer added that the resale market has been a benefactor of the lower capacity of the new construction industry. Single-family homes, while still within financial reach for most people, are becoming more expensive as a result of low supply. Some buyer hopefuls are being held back in the rental market.

“The recent GST exemption passed by the federal government for new qualifying rental housing will have a material impact on development in Edmonton. This will create some necessary additional rental inventory,” said Shearer. “Given the level of demand we are currently experiencing and the shortage of supply, the stage is set for another competitive market in 2024.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 3.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised modestly downward to reflect softer activity than expected in the third quarter.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart:
Royal LePage Forecast Chart: